{"generated":"2026-11-10","title":"Conditions: Heating / Steady / Cooling for 11 NWA measures, with the rule and inputs","source":"Source: see each measure","terms":"Free to use with attribution to The 479 Report and the original source named in each payload. Provided as-is, no warranty; market commentary, not advice. No MLS or listing data is served here.","as_of":"2026-10-20","as_of_basis":"set by the endpoint","notes":"For each measure we take its change from a year earlier (percent change, or percentage-point change for rates). We compare the newest change with the same kind of change over the previous five years (60 months, 20 quarters, 260 weeks, or 10 years for yearly data). z = (newest change - five-year average) / five-year standard deviation. Heating if z is +0.5 or more, Cooling if z is -0.5 or less, Steady in between. For measures where a rise is bad news for activity (unemployment rate, jobless claims, mortgage rates) the sign is flipped, so Heating always means 'more activity than usual'. If there are fewer than 24 monthly, 12 quarterly, 104 weekly or 8 yearly changes to compare, the label is 'Not enough history'.","source_url":"derived from 479 feeds","tables":{"conditions":[{"label":"Cooling","current_change":-1.01,"five_year_avg_change":11.57,"five_year_sd":7.72,"z":-1.63,"history_n":32,"history_from":"2023-12","measure_id":"permits","measure":"Building permits","what_it_measures":"New housing units permitted, Benton + Washington, 12-month total","frequency":"monthly","change_basis":"percent change in 12-month total vs a year earlier","flipped":false,"latest_period":"2026-08","latest_value":8823,"data_file":"summaries__census-bps-nwa_2026-10-20.json","series":["benton_county_units_total","washington_county_units_total"],"source":"U.S. Census Bureau BPS","note":"","as_of":"2026-08"},{"label":"Cooling","current_change":3.02,"five_year_avg_change":3.8,"five_year_sd":1.32,"z":-0.59,"history_n":60,"history_from":"2021-07","measure_id":"employed","measure":"People working","what_it_measures":"Residents with a job, Benton + Washington (BLS LAUS)","frequency":"monthly","change_basis":"percent change vs same month a year earlier","flipped":false,"latest_period":"2026-08","latest_value":309511.0,"data_file":"summaries__bls-laus-local_2026-10-11.json","series":["Benton County.employed","Washington County.employed"],"source":"BLS Local Area Unemployment Statistics","note":"","as_of":"2026-08"},{"label":"Heating","current_change":-0.7,"five_year_avg_change":-0.11,"five_year_sd":0.79,"z":-0.74,"history_n":60,"history_from":"2021-07","measure_id":"unemployment","measure":"Unemployment rate","what_it_measures":"Unemployed share of the labor force, Benton + Washington","frequency":"monthly","change_basis":"percentage-point change vs same month a year earlier","flipped":true,"latest_period":"2026-08","latest_value":2.91,"data_file":"summaries__bls-laus-local_2026-10-11.json","series":["Benton County.unemployed","Benton County.labor_force","Washington County.unemployed","Washington County.labor_force"],"source":"BLS Local Area Unemployment Statistics","note":"","as_of":"2026-08"},{"label":"Steady","current_change":-1.25,"five_year_avg_change":3.66,"five_year_sd":15.7,"z":-0.31,"history_n":20,"history_from":"2020-Q4","measure_id":"hiring","measure":"Hiring","what_it_measures":"Private-sector hires, Benton + Washington (Census QWI)","frequency":"quarterly","change_basis":"percent change vs same quarter a year earlier","flipped":false,"latest_period":"2025-Q4","latest_value":41349,"data_file":"summaries__qwi-nwa_2026-10-20.json","series":["benton_hires","washington_hires"],"source":"Census LEHD Quarterly Workforce Indicators","note":"","as_of":"2025-Q4"},{"label":"Cooling","current_change":3.66,"five_year_avg_change":11.85,"five_year_sd":8.3,"z":-0.99,"history_n":20,"history_from":"2021-Q2","measure_id":"home_prices","measure":"Home prices","what_it_measures":"FHFA all-transactions house price index, Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers metro","frequency":"quarterly","change_basis":"percent change vs same quarter a year earlier","flipped":false,"latest_period":"2026-Q2","latest_value":395.32,"data_file":"summaries__fhfa-hpi-nwa_2026-10-20.json","series":["msa_at_nsa"],"source":"FHFA HPI","note":"","as_of":"2026-Q2"},{"label":"Cooling","current_change":1.68,"five_year_avg_change":2.84,"five_year_sd":2.07,"z":-0.56,"history_n":31,"history_from":"2024-02","measure_id":"sales_tax","measure":"City sales tax","what_it_measures":"City sales tax collections, six largest cities, 12-month total (DFA)","frequency":"monthly","change_basis":"percent change in 12-month total vs a year earlier","flipped":false,"latest_period":"2026-09","latest_value":266143038.63,"data_file":"summaries__naics-history_bella_vista_2022-03_2026-09.json, naics-history_bentonville_2022-03_2026-09.json, naics-history_fayetteville_2022-03_2026-09.json, naics-history_rogers_2022-03_2026-09.json, naics-history_siloam_springs_2022-03_2026-09.json, naics-history_springdale_2022-03_2026-09.json","series":["months[].totals_as_printed.total"],"source":"Arkansas DFA local distribution by NAICS","note":"History starts March 2022, so the comparison window is shorter than five years.","as_of":"2026-09"},{"label":"Cooling","current_change":1.93,"five_year_avg_change":8.57,"five_year_sd":8.33,"z":-0.8,"history_n":44,"history_from":"2022-12","measure_id":"hospitality","measure":"Hotels & restaurants","what_it_measures":"Fayetteville hotel, motel and restaurant tax, 12-month total","frequency":"monthly","change_basis":"percent change in 12-month total vs a year earlier","flipped":false,"latest_period":"2026-08","latest_value":5455759,"data_file":"summaries__fayetteville-hmr_2026-10-14.json","series":["fayetteville_ap_hmr_monthly"],"source":"Fayetteville A&P Commission (Experience Fayetteville)","note":"Bentonville's A&P tax has only 19 months on file, too short for this rule; it is shown on the chart instead.","as_of":"2026-08"},{"label":"Steady","current_change":10.35,"five_year_avg_change":11.87,"five_year_sd":31.15,"z":-0.05,"history_n":10,"history_from":"2015","measure_id":"airport","measure":"Air travel","what_it_measures":"XNA passengers per year","frequency":"annual","change_basis":"percent change vs prior year","flipped":false,"latest_period":"2025","latest_value":2524256,"data_file":"summaries__xna-traffic_2026-10-20.json","series":["annual_passengers_total"],"source":"Northwest Arkansas National Airport (XNA)","note":"","as_of":"2025"},{"label":"Steady","current_change":1.13,"five_year_avg_change":0.7,"five_year_sd":1.24,"z":0.34,"history_n":260,"history_from":"2021-10-21","measure_id":"mortgage","measure":"Mortgage rates","what_it_measures":"Freddie Mac 30-year fixed average (national)","frequency":"weekly","change_basis":"percentage-point change vs 52 weeks earlier","flipped":true,"latest_period":"2026-10-15","latest_value":7.4,"data_file":"summaries__federal-mortgage-rates_2026-10-20.json","series":["pmms30"],"source":"Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey\u00ae","note":"","as_of":"2026-10-15"},{"label":"Steady","current_change":-8.89,"five_year_avg_change":-7.84,"five_year_sd":26.92,"z":-0.04,"history_n":260,"history_from":"2021-10-16","measure_id":"claims","measure":"Jobless claims","what_it_measures":"Arkansas initial unemployment claims, 4-week average (statewide; no county weekly data exists)","frequency":"weekly","change_basis":"percent change vs 52 weeks earlier","flipped":true,"latest_period":"2026-10-10","latest_value":1122.2,"data_file":"summaries__arkansas-ui-claims_2026-10-19.json","series":["ar_initial_claims"],"source":"U.S. Department of Labor, ETA 539","note":"","as_of":"2026-10-10"},{"label":"Steady","current_change":6.9,"five_year_avg_change":9.28,"five_year_sd":9.28,"z":-0.26,"history_n":10,"history_from":"2015","measure_id":"new_business","measure":"New businesses","what_it_measures":"Business applications filed, Benton + Washington (Census Business Formation Statistics)","frequency":"annual","change_basis":"percent change vs prior year","flipped":false,"latest_period":"2025","latest_value":8321,"data_file":"summaries__census-bfs-nwa_2026-10-20.json","series":["benton_applications_annual","washington_applications_annual"],"source":"Census BFS","note":"","as_of":"2025"}]}}