{"generated":"2026-11-10","title":"Growth Radar: every NWA city labeled Heating / Steady / Cooling on sales tax and homes permitted","source":"Arkansas DFA; U.S. Census Bureau Building Permits Survey","terms":"Free to use with attribution to The 479 Report and the original source named in each payload. Provided as-is, no warranty; market commentary, not advice. No MLS or listing data is served here.","as_of":"2026-09","as_of_basis":"newest period in this payload","rule":"For each city and measure we take the percent change in the 12-month total from a year earlier, and compare the newest change with the same change over the previous five years (60 months). z = (newest change - five-year average) / five-year standard deviation. Heating if z is +0.5 or more, Cooling if z is -0.5 or less, Steady in between. With fewer than 24 earlier changes to compare, the label is 'Not enough history'. Building permits are not labeled when the city permitted fewer than 30 homes in the 12 months a year earlier, because a single subdivision swings the change.","rule_version":"v1 (Conditions rule, applied per city)","sources":{"sales_tax":"Arkansas DFA local net tax distributions (report month)","permits":"U.S. Census Bureau Building Permits Survey (place level)","population":"U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program, Vintage 2025"},"rows":[{"city":"Gravette","tier":"edge","sales_tax":{"latest_period":"2026-08","latest_t12":2392482.0,"change":33.8,"history_n":60,"avg":9.5,"sd":10.4,"z":2.33,"history_from":"2021-08","label":"Heating"},"permits":{"latest_period":"2026-09","latest_t12":26.0,"change":null,"history_n":56,"label":"Too few permits"},"population":{"latest":3889,"one_year_pct":1.6,"since_2020_pct":9.4}},{"city":"Elm 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